Federal Reserve Kashkari: Tariff talks could take months or years, supports staying put

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari re-emphasized the need for caution amid uncertainty over trade conflicts, noting that defending inflation expectations was "critical". Speaking at a Bank of Japan event in Tokyo on Tuesday, he said there was a "useful debate" among policymakers about whether to view the inflationary impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs as a temporary shock or as a long-term condition. Kashkari noted in his speech that tariff negotiations could take months or years to fully conclude, that taxes on intermediate goods would take time to pass through, and that the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored could increase over time. "I will prioritize defending long-term inflation expectations," he said. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates on hold at three meetings so far this year and is expected to do the same at its next meeting in June. Before that, the Fed cut rates by a total of one percentage point in the final three months of last year. Economists widely expect tariffs to cause inflation, but the prevalence depends on the size of the tariffs and how much other countries retaliate. Tariffs can weigh on economic growth and lead to job cuts, which could lead to so-called "stagflation," putting the Fed in a dilemma: whether to keep interest rates high to curb inflation or cut them to support a sluggish economy. (Jin Ten)