HTX DeepThink: US and Japanese long-term bond auctions are cold, causing liquidity concerns, and bitcoin remains strong

Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a researcher at HTX Research, pointed out in this column that last week's long-term Treasury bond auctions in the United States and Japan were both cold, the yield of 20-year Treasury bonds in the United States hit 5%, and long-term interest rates in Japan hit a 25-year high, causing the market to raise concerns about the global liquidity crunch. However, the US Treasury still mainly absorbs funds through the 3-6 month T-Bill, and mainly "drains" money funds rather than risk assets; the Federal Reserve can also suspend the shrinking of the balance sheet or open the repurchase window at any time, and the pressure on risk assets is limited.
Bitcoin has thus shown strong resilience: spot ETFs continue to have a small net inflow, more than 70% of bitcoin on the chain has been settled for more than half a year, exchange balances continue to decrease, and funds in Asia and the Middle East are on the dip. Even though net US bond financing may rise to $1.25 trillion during the July-September period, short-end bond issuance and repurchase backstops have weakened the direct pumping pressure of high-beta assets. ETF passive positions and "hard chips" disperse selling pressure, superimposed on the depreciation of the US dollar, Bitcoin still shows strength.