Goldman Sachs: US stocks could fall by about 20% due to "recession risk"

Goldman Sachs said that the US stock market is at a near 20% risk of falling, and that a recession is a huge risk for the stock market. In Thursday's podcast, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer were particularly cautious. Hatzius reiterated his expectation that there is a "45% chance of a US recession over the next 12 months", acknowledging that recent data has been mixed, ranging from weak soft data such as sentiment surveys to better hard data such as the latest non-farm payrolls data. Alec Phillips, chief political economist at Goldman Sachs, warned that the US president's comments around the trade deal with the UK suggest that many countries will eventually face higher tariffs than they did before Trump's re-election.