CITIC Securities: It is still expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates less than or equal to two times this year

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May 2025 maintained the policy interest rate unchanged, and the meeting statement emphasized that "uncertainty has further intensified". Powell's speech revolved around the words "uncertainty" and "watching as we go", and there seemed to be little incremental information. However, based on our analytical framework of "transitory inflation + weaker growth + high uncertainty", the current US economic data and inflation expectations correspond to interest rate cut expectations. We still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less than or equal to 2 times this year, and expect the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June to maintain the policy rate unchanged. In terms of the market, the lackluster meeting did not cause much waves. We expect the market will still trade around Trump's tariff policy in the short term. The bearish sentiment of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market is still heavy. The outlook for US stocks is still unclear. It is expected that the short-term volatility will remain high. (Golden Ten)