Bernstein: With the tide of corporate holdings and the return of ETF funds, the price of bitcoin may reach a new high

The bitcoin price narrative has fluctuated between the "gold" and "Nasdaq" correlations this year, but Bernstein analysts believe that the short-term correlation is misleading, with retail selling drying up, a wave of corporate holdings and the return of ETF funds as key indicators, or driving the "supply crunch" to reach new highs. Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial hoarding of 42,000 BTC (about $4 billion), joining the ranks of companies such as Strategy. There are currently about 80 companies holding 700,000 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of the total supply. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $3 billion last week, a five-month high. Total holdings accounted for 5.5% of bitcoin liquidity. The proportion of institutions rose to 33% from 20% in September last year, of which 48% were held by investment advisors, reflecting asset allocation needs. Combined with corporate holdings, institutionalized capital has controlled 9% of BTC supply. If the US government implements strategic reserves, it may trigger sovereign countries to compete to hoard coins. The proportion of BTC balances on exchanges has dropped from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, but some assets are only transferred to ETF custodians.
Bernstein analysts estimate that Bitcoin will reach a cycle peak of about $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033, with intermittent one-year bear markets.