Goldman Sachs forecasts weaker U.S. economic data this summer

Economists at Goldman Sachs have forecast that fourth-quarter US GDP will grow by just 0.5 per cent compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 as tariffs and policy uncertainty weigh on the economy. For now, business and consumer surveys are pointing to a slowdown, but official economic data have yet to show such signs. They reasoned that economic indicators could start to show a clearer sign of recession by mid-to-late summer. "The evolution of the data in recent weeks is consistent with previous'event-driven 'growth slowdowns. However, it is too early to draw strong conclusions from the limited data available at the moment."