Shenwan Hongyuan Group Fan Wei: Bond market yield fluctuation center or downward in the second quarter

On April 18th, under the background of increasing uncertainties, the bond market trend has attracted much attention from the market. Fan Wei, general manager of the fixed income financing headquarters of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Securities, told reporters recently that in the second quarter, under the combined influence of external factors and internal policy hedging, the bond market yield fluctuation center may decline as a whole. Fan Wei forecasts that in the second quarter, the yield of 10-year government bonds will fluctuate in the range of 1.4% to 1.8%, and the center may be located near 1.6%. "On the one hand, under the external impact of tariff policy, monetary policy continues to be loose, and interest rate cuts are still expected. At the same time, it is expected that the US tariff policy will exacerbate the global economic recession expectations, the decline in overseas demand will lead to pressure on the domestic export chain, superimposed risk assets (stock markets, commodities) correction, and accelerated inflows of funds into the bond market to avoid risks, driving yields down. On the other hand, fiscal efforts and the increase in government bond supply may form a phased impact on long-end yields and increase bond market volatility, especially in the second quarter, which may usher in a peak in interest rate bond issuance, or bring short-term upward pressure on yields. "