"We may or may not be in a recession, but we're going to have inflation anyway," Adam Posen, a former Fed and Bank of England official who is now the influential director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in a speech this week. He puts the probability of a recession at 65 percent.
As for the Fed, Mr. Posen argues that it has cut interest rates too far, given the still-high level of inflation. Once prices start to rise again, the Fed may not be able to keep pace with the change. As a result, the Fed could be forced to raise rates sharply and quickly, putting additional pressure on the economy.
If all of this comes to pass, Posen said it could take years or longer to repair the damage.
American economist: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates too much, and the probability of the United States falling into stagflation is 65%.
2025-04-18 07:38:11
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