China Securities Construction Investment: In the short term, the interest rate center of US bonds may move up, with wide fluctuations

On April 13, China Securities Construction Investment Research Report said that due to the limited economic significance of the ultra-high "irrational" tariffs in the calculation of tax rates, the sharp increase in the interest rate of US bonds in this round is mainly due to the large-scale sell-off of US bonds in the case of increased credit risk and liquidity risk in the United States, and the function of traditional "safe haven assets" is reduced. In history, the imposition of US tariffs has been accompanied by a short-term rise in US bond yields, but neither China nor the US has shown a negotiating attitude in this round. In the short term, Sino-US trade friction may continue to heat up, and the increase in tariffs this time has reached an irrational level. Recently, transactions have mainly focused on tariffs rather than economic data and fundamentals. In the short term, the interest rate center of US bonds may move up, fluctuate widely, and the amplitude of the "irrational" tariff policy is relatively large. In the medium and long term, after the trade friction eases, if the fundamentals of the United States do not fluctuate greatly, and the US dollar is still the international reserve currency, due to the sharp increase in interest rates during the tariff game in the early stage, superimposed with subsequent interest rate cuts, US bonds may strengthen, and the interest rate center will move down.