Goldman Sachs: U.S. stocks may evolve into a cyclical bear market, usually lasting about two years and taking five years to rebound to the starting point

The latest US stock research report released by Goldman Sachs shows that the duration of the US stock market may be longer. It is currently in an event-driven bear market (triggered by tariffs). However, given the rising risk of economic recession, it can easily evolve into a cyclical bear market. Goldman further analyzed that from the perspective of trend, the average decline of cyclical bear markets and event-driven bear markets is usually around 30%, although their duration varies. Event-driven bear markets are shorter in duration and recover faster. Cyclical bear markets last about two years on average and take about five years to fully rebound to the starting point, while event-driven bear markets usually last about eight months and recover in about one year. The impact of a structural bear market is most severe, with average declines of around 60% lasting more than three years and typically taking a decade to fully recover.