JPMorgan Chase: The probability of a US recession is close to 80%.

JPMorgan says the probability of a recession digested by stocks closely tied to the US economy has surged to nearly 80 per cent. Meanwhile, credit product investors remain upbeat in spite of the likely intensification of financial pressures. The Russell 2000 index, which has been battered by the recent sell-off, is now pricing in a 79 per cent chance of a recession, according to JPMorgan's market-based Recession Indicators Dashboard. Other asset classes are also sounding the alarm: the S & P 500 puts the probability of a recession at 62 per cent, base metals at 68 per cent and five-year Treasuries at 54 per cent. By contrast, the investment grade credit market digests a recession probability of just 25 per cent, compared with zero in November. (Jin Ten)