Agency: Trump's Tariffs Could Increase Core PCE Index by 2.0%

Saira Malik, head of Equities and Fixed Income at Nuveen, said the overall impact of the tariffs announced so far this year on real U.S. GDP growth is likely to be around negative 1.7 percent. She said in a note that the tariffs would also increase core PCE by 2.0 percent this year, a data favored by the Federal Reserve as a barometer of inflation. Its latest figure for February was 2.8 percent. With the higher-than-expected tariffs announced so far, Nuveen sees risks skewing towards further Fed rate cuts. "Our probability-weighted guidance has increased from four Fed rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 to 6.6, while our fair value assessment of the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 4.5 percent to 4.0 percent," she said.