Binance report: Tariff impact is dominated by risk aversion in the short term, and the long-term narrative needs to be reshaped

On April 8, according to the latest report released by Binance Research Institute, since Trump returned to the White House and sharply increased import tariffs, the US weighted tariff rate has soared to a new high in nearly a hundred years, and global trade tensions have increased significantly. The crypto market has fluctuated violently, BTC has fallen by more than 19% since the high point at the beginning of the year, ETH has fallen by more than 40%, the total market value of the market has shrunk by nearly 1 trillion US dollars, and safe-haven funds have flooded into gold and bonds.
The study pointed out that the continued trade friction and stagflation risk pose a policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve, and the market has begun to expect multiple interest rate cuts this year. Bitcoin's short-term correlation with the stock market and negative correlation with gold show its "risk asset" attributes, but in the long run, if inflation continues to be high and interest rates fall, Bitcoin may once again become an investment choice for "inflation-resistant hard assets".
The report concludes that the crypto market may remain volatile and highly sensitive in the short term, while the long-term outlook depends on the evolution of the global macro environment, the Federal Reserve's policy path, and whether the crypto industry can regain its independent narrative and asset positioning.