The risk of stagflation in the United States has risen, and the two giants of Wall Street have sharply diverged on the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate

At around 2am local time in Zurich, Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, gave his verdict on US President Donald Trump's new round of large-scale tariffs. In a note to clients, he wrote: The Fed will be forced to cut interest rates sharply this year, possibly as many as four times. About 12 hours later, Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, came to the opposite conclusion: the Fed will not cut rates now. His team reversed its forecast of a possible rate cut in June and now expects the Fed to have to wait until next year to cut rates again. "The Fed will struggle to ignore rising inflation pressures in the short term and will not be able to ease monetary policy quickly," Gapen and his team said in the note. This wide divergence highlights the particularity and complexity of America's economic woes in the context of an escalating trade war.