Agency: The probability of a U.S. economic slowdown is greater than a recession

Bill Adams of Comerica says the tariffs will act as a headwind to U.S. growth, but a slowdown is more likely than a contraction. The impact of the tariffs will be partially offset by tax cuts being discussed in Congress. He believes overall fiscal policy through 2026 "will be more supportive of economic growth than financial marekt expects." Much will also depend on whether the tariffs are seen as permanent or can be removed based on negotiations with U.S. trading partners. The real economic risk is that other countries start to emulate the U.S. in raising tariffs.