Safe haven demand is strong, and gold is rising strongly

Gold Ten Futures Special Guoxin Futures Comments: Looking ahead to the market outlook, the aggressive implementation of reciprocal tariffs and the escalation of counter-measures by multiple parties, the market's concerns about the restructuring of the global supply chain and the "fragmentation" of the economy have intensified, and the demand for safe haven has continued to pour into gold; at the same time, the market's bet on the number of interest rate cuts during the year has risen to 4 times (probability 50%), and the expectation of real interest rate decline has further opened up the price of gold. COMEX gold may accelerate to break through $3,200/ounce and hit a high of $3,300/ounce. Shanghai gold is supported by the pressure of the gradual depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and is expected to break through 750 yuan/gram. COMEX silver, driven by the spillover of risk aversion and the resilience of photovoltaic demand, may break It is recommended to maintain long exposure to precious metals, focusing on the combination of gold trend positions and silver band operations. The risk is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates less than expected or the risk-off premium will be taken away due to an unexpected easing of geopolitical conflicts.