Allianz Chief Economist: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates once in 2025

Allianz chief adviser El Erian expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once this year, in stark contrast to what the market and the Fed are expecting. The market has fully priced in expectations of at least two rate cuts in 2025, and it is likely that there will be a third cut. Overall, they expect a rate cut of about 70 basis points this year, with the first 25 basis points cut in July. Meanwhile, the Fed's latest dot plot calls for only two rate cuts. Erian said the Fed is "essentially dovish," adding that he is concerned that the Fed is ignoring weak economic data and calling the upcoming tariffs temporary until it really gets to know the details of these tariffs and how countries will respond.