Citi report forecasts three main scenarios and market impact of the US tariff policy day on April 2

In its latest report, Citi forecasts three main scenarios for the U.S. tariff policy day on April 2 and analyzes the corresponding market impact:
Announce only reciprocal tariffs: market reaction is limited in this scenario.
Reciprocal tariffs plus value-added tax (VAT): The dollar index could immediately rise by 50-100 basis points and global stock markets could fall.
In addition to reciprocal tariffs and value-added taxes, industrial tariffs are also included: in this scenario, the market reaction may be more intense.
The report pointed out that after the S & P 500's worst start to the first quarter since 2020, analysts have warned that the latent risk of subsequent declines outweighs the rise. Analysts believe that future tariffs and retaliatory actions will be key, and the market reaction on April 2 will depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs and how quickly other countries respond to reciprocal tariffs.