Agency: Consumer confidence poses economic risks

John Velis, strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, said the slide in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was "depressing". Of particular concern, he said, was the rise in long-term inflation expectations, which had been relatively stable. As consumer confidence falters, the weakening in demand may start to show up in the real economy, a phenomenon already seen in some industries such as air travel. Air travel prices fell in February, according to inflation data released this week. Of the consumer confidence survey, Velis said: "The evidence from many cycles suggests that these indicators are not very good predictors, but you can't ignore the overall decline and the reasons behind it."