JPMorgan Securities raised its year-end forecast for Japan's benchmark 10-year bond yield to 1.7% from 1.55% at the end of January, citing a variety of risks from U.S. policy. Forecasts that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in June and December, but possible U.S. action may complicate the situation; if tariffs weigh on global economic growth, it could hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, but if Japan is accused of weakening the yen, it may rush to raise interest rates, fixed income research head Takashi Yamawaki and strategist Hiroki Yamamoto wrote in a March 10 note.
The correlation between the trend of ultra-long JGB yields and the Bank of Japan's policy rate may disappear; long-term government bond yields may fluctuate sideways after the Bank of Japan raises interest rates above 1%. JPMorgan also raised its year-end forecast for 20-year and 30-year JGB yields to 2.35% and 2.65% from 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.
JPMorgan raised its end-of-year forecast for 10-year Japanese government bond yields to 1.7% from 1.55%.
2025-03-10 05:07:15
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