Agency: Tariffs are unlikely to tip the U.S. into a recession

Connor Lokar, economist at ITR Economics, said fears that tariffs would tip the United States into recession may be overstated. "Trade is not a large share of U.S. GDP... The U.S. is the largest economy in the world," he added. "Size matters." Weaker economic indicators, combined with concerns about the negative impact of tariffs, are driving risk aversion, pushing down stocks, Treasury yields and the dollar. However, Lokar said the U.S. economy will eventually continue to expand, "but uncertainty, prices, and the resulting interest rate pressures tend to weigh on the pace of economic growth."