The trade war has shaken Deutsche Bank's hawkish view of the Federal Reserve, and a rate cut this year is no longer out of the question

Deutsche Bank's economic team takes the most hawkish view on Wall Street on the Fed's policy in 2025, predicting that the central bank will not cut rates this year. While that remains the team's official position, chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti acknowledged that the impact of Trump's new tariffs could jeopardize that forecast. "You've definitely started to see some of the negative effects of trade uncertainty in the economic data," Luzzetti said. "If that effect expands and is reflected in weak labor market data, the Fed could cut rates this year." However, Luzzetti said Deutsche Bank wants to see how long the tariffs will last before changing its forecast for the Fed.