Bank of America: It is expected that in the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve has ended its rate-cutting cycle

Trump's trade, fiscal and immigration policy agenda is expected to trigger moderate inflation, BofA analysts wrote, predicting that these changes will be reflected in inflation in the second half of 2025. They noted that any additional tariffs in the coming weeks could bring the timeline forward. "A key question is whether policy changes will affect long-term inflation expectations," they said, adding that market-based measures of inflation remain within historical ranges. BofA reiterated its stance that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is over and inflation is "above target," with both headline and core CPI growth expected to be 0.3% month-on-month in January. "If our forecast for January CPI is correct, then the Fed's case for staying put will strengthen further," they wrote. ( Gold Ten)