Rabobank: Trump has not yet changed the ECB's plans

Rabobank said that currently, Trump's plan has not materially changed the economic outlook for the euro area. Therefore, there is no reason to expect the ECB to change the course of interest rate cuts at this time. The ECB Governing Council increasingly expects inflation to converge to its 2% target during 2025, which allows for another 25 basis points cut at its January policy meeting. However, uncertainty about the future remains high. So while the ECB may be inclined to cut rates further in the coming months, we think the ECB also wants to maintain its flexibility. Lagarde may avoid providing any forward guidance. Overall, we expect the ECB to cut interest rates three times, lowering the deposit rate to 2.25% by April, based on the assumption that underlying inflation will be more sticky than the ECB expects.