Economic research: Fed speech confirms pause in rate hikes in January, views more divided

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at its January 28-29 meeting, the first pause since the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle in September. Since the December meeting, the Fed's remarks have been broadly in line with the hawkish Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released at the time - although Fed Governor Christopher Waller's dovish remarks in mid-January are noteworthy. As new members rotate into the FOMC's (FOMC) voting committee, the distribution of views is moving away from the midpoint and toward extremes. Members appear to have reached a broad consensus on keeping rates on hold in January, but differences of opinion within the committee could lead to policy inaction, and the risk of dissent will rise over time.