Bank of America: If Trump detonates tariff bombs, the Federal Reserve may end interest rate cuts

Bank of America predicted that the Trump administration's aggressive tariffs could force the Fed into wait-and-see mode because of concerns about inflation. Aditya Bhave, the bank's US economist, said in a note to clients on Wednesday that "there are increasing signs of an upward trend in inflation" and that, given the timing of the change of administration, the Fed may have completed its last rate cut of the cycle.
"Even before we consider fiscal easing or tariffs, inflation is already a concern. These policy changes would pose an upside risk to the Fed's core PCE forecast (our forecast is 2.8 percent at the end of 2025)," Bhave said, referring to the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. "So if Trump announces high import tariffs soon after taking office, the Fed may not cut rates further," he added. (Kim X)