Wells Fargo: The Federal Reserve may not place too much emphasis on Trump's tariff-induced inflation

The Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies could lead to further inflation, but economic models suggest it will be a one-off increase in the price level rather than a long-term inflationary spiral. Jay Bryson, an economist at Wells Fargo, said that could persuade the Fed to be more patient in dealing with tariff-induced inflation, especially as the labor market continues to slow. His view supports Wells Fargo's benchmark expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates three more times this year, by 25 basis points each. But Bryson warned that if the trade war becomes more protracted, such as a series of tit-for-tat international retaliation, the Fed may have to take the inflationary consequences more seriously.