Arthur Hayes: Crypto market may partially peak in mid-to-late March; Maelstrom has ventured into the DeSci space

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote that he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-to-late March.
The Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by about $180 billion and provide an additional liquidity injection of $237 billion as the RRP balance decreases due to the adjustment of the incentive rate. Total net liquidity injection of $57 billion.
The Treasury is likely to pay for government spending through the TGA until May-June, before raising the debt ceiling, a move that will have a negative impact on liquidity. In addition, peak tax periods, such as mid-April, will further depress market liquidity.
If the factors that affect the TGA balance are the only factors that determine the price of cryptocurrencies, expect a local market peak at the end of Quarter 1. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a local high of around $73,000 in mid-March, then traded sideways and began a months-long decline on April 11, before the 15th tax deadline.
It added that the Trump team's disappointment with its proposed pro-cryptocurrency and pro-business legislation can be made up for by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, with Quarter 1 dollar liquidity increasing by as much as $612 billion.
He added: "As chief investment officer of Maelstrom, I will encourage risk-takers in the fund to take risks to DEGEN. The first step in this direction was our decision to enter the burgeoning field of decentralized science (DeSci) junk coins. We liked undervalued junk coins and bought BIO; VITA; ATH; GROW; PSY; CRYO; NEURON."