Analysis: The US debt ceiling could be hit during Trump's inauguration, or it could be a signal that Bitcoin is bottoming out

In a letter to congressional leaders, Janet Yellen, US Treasury secretary, said the Treasury expected the US to hit the debt ceiling as early as January 14-23, 2025, and that "extraordinary measures" might be needed to avoid the federal government falling into default. Risk assets ended the day weaker just before the letter was released. US stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor's 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industries Average all down about 1 per cent. Bitcoin was down 4 per cent from its intraday high. Historically, raising the debt ceiling has been a negative signal for the largest cryptocurrencies, with the last five times it has fallen or underperformed in the following days. Since the November 2022 cycle low, Bitcoin has moved in line with the previous two cycles. Both the 2018-2022 and 2015-2018 cycles saw significant pullbacks at this point in the cycle. Trump's January 20 inauguration could herald a bottom for Bitcoin. (Coindesk)