The number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits has declined, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year remains 91.4%.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week in a sign that the economy still avoids a wave of mass layoffs in the final stretch of 2024. The Labor Department said on Thursday that 219,000 people applied for new unemployment benefits in the week ending Dec. 21, up from 220,000 the week before, and the market expected 225,000. The unemployment rate is now 4.2 percent, which is still fairly modest by the standards of the past decade. But it has risen slightly in 2024, a sign of a softening labor market, reflected in fewer job openings per job seeker, fewer job openings and more industries cutting back on hiring. According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is still 91.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.6%.