Bitfinex Alpha: Strong ETF inflows and increased retail interest, BTC still on track to break through $100,000

The Bitfinex Alpha report notes that despite experiencing some brief turbulence last week, Bitcoin ended November on a high note. BTC experienced its biggest pullback since the U.S. election, falling 8.64% to $90,911 during the week before quickly rebounding to set a record monthly close of $96,506. At the end of November, Bitcoin ended with a stunning 37.3% gain, making it the second best month of 2024 so far. The stellar performance continues to highlight the strong momentum of Bitcoin, which is well positioned as it enters December. December has historically been a tumultuous month for Bitcoin, but the asset has averaged returns of up to 38.86% during the halving years. Given the current bull market dynamics, Bitcoin is poised for further gains, although there may be volatility in the short term. Any short-term pullback could be triggered by ETF outflows and long-term holder (LTH) profit-taking.
Interestingly, the supply of short-term holders (STH) is near its cycle high of 3,282,000 BTC. Historically, the final phase of a bull market began when the supply of STH broke through the cycle high before the halving. This shift indicates increasing retail participation, but also highlights the market's reliance on upcoming demand to absorb LTH profit-taking. If short-term holder demand can meet long-term holder supply, BTC will break through $100,000.