Royal Bank of Canada: Inflation report shows no sign of stopping the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again

RBC analyst Nathan Janzen said October's CPI increase was broadly in line with market expectations and should not prevent the Fed from cutting rates again in December. Janzen noted that the Fed remains highly data-dependent, with another month of inflation and labour market data to be announced before the next policy decision, although his base case is for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, then another 25 basis points in January, before pausing cuts for the rest of 2025. Inflation has slowed from earlier this year and the labour market has softened, Mr. Janzen said, suggesting that even if the US economy is resilient and the government's large budget deficit has an impact on inflation, interest rates are still above what is needed to bring prices back to the Fed's 2 per cent target in a comprehensive and sustainable way.