JPMorgan Chase: The Federal Reserve will only take tightening action if inflation returns to or exceeds 4%

JPMorgan's markets team believes the inflation data is more likely to pick up rather than cool. Nonetheless, they believe this week's hotter data is unlikely to derail the tone of risk appetite and investors are less likely to be fixated on a single data point because there is another CPI data coming out before the Fed's December meeting. "However, the team cautioned investors that Mr. Powell had shifted the Fed's focus from the labour market to its dual mandate of weighing employment and inflation." If data such as CPI and even retail sales show a stronger growth trajectory that is also spurring inflation, then we need to look at what happens in the future. "
In JPMorgan's view, investors are unlikely to shift to a cautious portfolio stance until they see headline CPI at 3.5 per cent a credible threat to the Fed. They believe the Fed will tighten only if inflation returns to or exceeds 4 per cent.