JPMorgan Chase: Affected by the election result, the risk of the US debt ceiling has been reduced

JPMorgan said the election result reduces the risk of a heated debate over the U.S. debt ceiling in the first half of 2025 and alleviates uncertainty about the evolution of the Treasury's General Account (TGA). The debt ceiling has been suspended until January 1, 2025, after which the Treasury will begin using unconventional measures and its cash balance to meet its debt obligations. JPMorgan believes that assuming Treasury's TGA forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 is $700 billion, accompanied by a slight increase in unconventional measures, it is unlikely that Treasury will run out of resources and risk a technical default before July 2025.