TD Securities said the latest market reaction following Trump's victory suggested that the market expected a combination of tax cuts and tariffs to push up the Federal Reserve's neutral interest rate.
We are changing our forecasts for the Fed because rising inflation will lead to a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. We now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each in November, December and January, then pause in March. The Fed will continue to cut rates at a "pause-cut" pace in 2025, cutting rates to 3.5% by the end of 2025, which is higher than the previous expectation of 3.0%.
In the first half of 2026, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to 3.0%, which means we don't see any change in the neutral rate, it's just that the Fed will get there later.
TD Securities: The Federal Reserve will arrive at the neutral interest rate even later
2024-11-07 07:17:37
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