Citi: Non-farm payroll data will slow sharply in October, and market attention will not return to the economic downturn

The Federal Reserve has yet to declare victory in its fight against inflation, but policymakers have shifted some of their attention to the biggest jobs component of its dual mandate. "The October non-farm payroll data will be an important confirmation or repudiation of September's strength, but may not be enough to shift market attention back to the risk of a US recession," Citi economist Veronica Clark said in a recent note, although the October data will reflect the impact of the ongoing Boeing strike and hurricanes. Clark estimates that these factors will reduce payrolls by 7-80,000. Citi took a more dovish view of the non-farm payroll data than widely expected, forecasting 90,000 new jobs and a small increase in the unemployment rate to 4.23%. In addition, Citi said any downward revision to the September data could be more significant than usual.